As of January 2026, the question of Hamas’s remaining strength has become the central focus of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Following over two years of intensive conflict, the landscape of the Gaza Strip and the operational capacity of its former governing body have shifted dramatically. While the group has been undoubtedly devastated, the reality on the ground suggests a complex picture of a military force that is severely weakened but far from eliminated. Determining exactly how much of Hamas’s strength is left requires a deep dive into manpower estimates, infrastructure integrity, and the group’s evolving strategic pivot.
The Numbers Game: Evaluating Manpower and Personnel Losses
Before the conflict ignited in October 2023, intelligence estimates placed the strength of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, at approximately 25,000 to 30,000 fighters. These forces were organized into a disciplined hierarchy of five regional brigades, 24 battalions, and roughly 140 companies.
By early 2026, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that they had killed or incapacitated a significant portion of this original force. Israeli military assessments from late 2025 and early 2026 suggest that approximately 20,000 to 22,000 operatives have been killed. However, independent monitors and international agencies often highlight a discrepancy in these figures, noting that verifiable militant fatalities may be closer to 9,000 or 12,000 when excluding non-combatant members or those from other armed factions.
Despite these heavy losses, Hamas is estimated to still retain a fighting force of between 10,000 and 15,000 members. This resilience is attributed to a desperate recruitment drive. While these new recruits are often described as “lower quality” and lack the sophisticated training of the pre-war veterans, they allow the group to maintain a presence in areas where the IDF has previously declared control.
The Underground Fortress: Status of the Tunnel Network
Perhaps the most critical component of Hamas’s remaining strength is its vast subterranean infrastructure, often referred to as the “Gaza Metro.” At the height of the war, this network was estimated to span hundreds of miles, providing safe passage, command centers, and weapon caches.
Entering 2026, Israeli security assessments indicate that while the IDF has systematically located and destroyed kilometers of tunnels—including a notable 2-kilometer stretch in Beit Lahiya in early January—a staggering amount of the network remains intact. Experts suggest that as much as 70% to 80% of the tunnel system may still be functional. These tunnels act as a force multiplier, allowing a smaller number of fighters to move undetected, launch surprise ambushes, and evade high-tech surveillance.
The survival of this “underground city” is the primary reason why Hamas has been able to transition from a conventional military force to a persistent guerrilla insurgency. Even in the northern governorates, which saw some of the most intense fighting, the tunnel network facilitates the group’s ability to regroup and challenge the security of the current ceasefire.
Weaponry and Technical Capabilities
Small Arms and Explosives
Hamas still possesses access to thousands of small arms, including assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and sniper rifles. The group has increasingly shifted its focus toward the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and landmines. In recent weeks, incidents along the “Yellow Line”—the security perimeter—have involved Hamas operatives planting sophisticated explosives to target Israeli patrols.
Rocket Arsenal
The days of massive, simultaneous rocket barrages appear to be over. However, intelligence suggests Hamas still holds hundreds of rockets. While most are short-range, a small number of long-range projectiles are believed to be hidden deep within the remaining tunnel shafts, capable of reaching central Israel. The occasional rocket fire serves more as a psychological tool and a signal of continued resistance than as a strategic military threat.
From Governance to Guerrilla Insurgency
One of the most significant shifts in Hamas’s strength is the loss of its administrative and governing capacity. For nearly two decades, Hamas was the de facto government of Gaza. As of early 2026, the group has largely ceded its governing role as part of the U.S.-brokered peace framework.
The “Board of Peace,” an international oversight body, is currently working toward the establishment of a technocratic government. While Hamas has publicly stated it will dissolve its existing government structures once this new body takes over, it remains a “shadow power.” The group’s strength is no longer measured by its ability to collect taxes or manage civil services, but by its ability to act as a “spoiler” to any political arrangement it does not approve of.
The Regional Dimension: West Bank and External Support
While the focus remains on Gaza, Hamas has seen a surprising surge in strength and activity in the West Bank. Over the past year, the group was involved in over 130 violent incidents in the territory, a 135% increase from previous periods. This “geographic diversification” allows Hamas to project power even when its Gaza-based forces are under extreme pressure.
Furthermore, despite the blockade and the destruction of smuggling routes, the ideological strength of the movement continues to draw support from regional allies. This political and ideological foothold is perhaps the hardest element of their strength to quantify or eliminate. As long as there is a perceived lack of a viable political path for Palestinian statehood, Hamas finds a fertile ground for recruitment and relevance.
The Fragility of the 2026 Ceasefire
The current state of Hamas’s strength is a major factor in the fragility of the ceasefire that took effect in late 2025. Israel remains in control of roughly 53% to 58% of Gaza’s territory, specifically maintaining a presence in the Philadelphia and Netzarim corridors.
Hamas’s remaining 10,000+ fighters and their intact tunnel network mean that the IDF must remain on high alert. Frequent “peacekeeping” operations are still necessary to dismantle newly discovered infrastructure. The group is currently engaged in a war of attrition, hoping to outlast the political will of the international community and the Israeli government.
In summary, Hamas in 2026 is a battered, fragmented version of its former self. It has lost its senior leadership, its governing mandate, and a significant portion of its veteran fighting force. However, through the use of tunnels, new recruits, and a pivot to asymmetric warfare, it remains a potent military threat capable of low-intensity conflict for the foreseeable future.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Hamas fighters are still active in 2026?
Estimates vary, but most intelligence reports suggest between 10,000 and 15,000 active fighters remain. While Israel claims to have killed over 20,000, new recruitment from the local population has offset some of these losses, albeit with less experienced personnel.
Does Hamas still control any territory in Gaza?
Hamas no longer officially governs Gaza, as a technocratic committee and international oversight are being established. However, they maintain a “shadow” presence in many areas, particularly in the central Gaza Strip and within the remaining tunnel networks where the IDF does not have a permanent standing presence.
What percentage of the Hamas tunnel network has been destroyed?
While the IDF has destroyed hundreds of kilometers of tunnels, experts estimate that 70% to 80% of the original network remains functional as of January 2026. These tunnels are increasingly difficult to locate as they are buried deeper or located in areas with high civilian density.
Is Hamas still able to fire rockets into Israel?
Yes, but the frequency and scale have decreased significantly. Hamas is believed to have a few hundred rockets left, mostly short-range. They use these sparingly to demonstrate that they have not been fully defeated, but they lack the capacity for the sustained barrages seen in 2023.
Has the death of senior leaders like Yahya Sinwar ended the group’s strength?
While the “decapitation” of its leadership in late 2024 severely disrupted the group’s command and control, Hamas has moved to a more decentralized structure. Field commanders now operate with more autonomy, making the group harder to dismantle through a single military strike.